Thursday, November 6, 2008

A comparison of the 6A brackets, OSAA vs. JeffD's.

If you have a constructive comment about what I've done this year, I'm more than open to suggestions. Leave them here or you can email me at cghs24 at yahoo.com and I guarantee a response...well, eventually. I do occasionally check that mailbox.

6A

My bracket:
Jesuit (2) bye
Barlow @ Sprague
Clackamas @ Tigard (9)
Wilson @ Grants Pass (6)
South Salem (4) bye
Canby (7) @ West Linn
Westview @ Grant
McKay @ Central Catholic (10)
South Medford (3) bye
Southridge (5) @ David Douglas
Newberg @ McNary (14)
Centennial @ Lincoln (13)
Lake Oswego (1) bye
Oregon City @ Sheldon (11)
West Salem @ Beaverton (11)
Gresham @ Tualatin (8)

OSAA Bracket:

Jesuit (2) bye
Gresham @ Grants Pass (6)
Wilson @ Canby (7)
Clackamas @ South Salem (4)
Lake Oswego (1) bye
McKay @ Grant
Sheldon (11) @ Tigard (9)
Westview @ Central Catholic (10)
South Medford (3) bye
Newberg @ David Douglas
Oregon City @ Southridge (5)
Centennial @ Lincoln (13)
Tualatin (8) bye
Roseburg @ McNary (14)
Barlow @ West Linn
Sprague @ Beaverton (11)

Results of the final oregonlive.com poll in parentheses.

The first thing I notice is that the OSAA bracket is VERY top-heavy. The #1,2,4,6,7,9,10 and the two teams tied for #11 are ALL on top. Not only that, but #2,4,6,and 7 are in the same QUARTER. Two of those teams won't even make it to the quarterfinals. The second-lowest ranked league #1 team has a bye, and the two highest-ranked teams in the bottom half will meet in the quarterfinals. Seems very unbalanced to me.

In my bracket, #2,4,6,7,9 and 10 are still on top, but #1 is no longer there. I'm a little unhappy about #4 playing #7 in the second round, but such is the way of the Pacific league. So, if the pollsters know their stuff, #2 will play #6 and #4 will play #10 in the quarterfinals. In the bottom half are #1,3,5,8,both 11s,12 and 14. The only part of my bracket I'm unhappy with is the second-round matchup between the #3 and #5 teams. My quarters would #3/5 vs #13, and #1 vs #8. Again, the bottom half of this bracket is a little imbalanced, but not horribly.

Final Spreadsheet

Is here.

If you see typos, please let me know.

1A Proposed Playoff

Proposed 1A Playoff

I’ll start by placing the 6 league leaders in the first 6 spots in the bracket. They will go in point order into pools ABCDDC.

Pool A: Dufur
Pool B: Lowell
Pool C: Crane, Imbler
Pool D: Butte Falls, Perrydale

Now to put in the 6 league 2nd-place teams opposite the league champions. Since Pools A and D will be on the top half-bracket, and pools B and C on the bottom half-bracket, I’ll separate based on that. Each team will be placed in the first spot they can possibly be placed in pools BAABCD.

Pool A: Dufur, Joseph, Jordan Valley
Pool B: Lowell, St. Paul, Echo
Pool C: Crane, Imbler, Triad
Pool D: BF, Perrydale, Siletz Valley

Now the wild card teams go into the bracket. They should not be put in a pool with any other team from the same league, if at all possible. Let’s see where they could go: Gilchrist, A or B. Cove, B or D. Triangle Lake, A or C. Adrian, B or D. So that results in this:

Pool A: Dufur, Joseph, JV, Gilchrist
Pool B: Lowell, St. Paul, Echo, Adrian
Pool C: Crane, Imbler, Triad, Triangle Lake
Pool D: BF, Perrydale, Siletz, Cove

The bracket would be:
Gilchrist @ Dufur
Jordan Valley @ Joseph
Siletz Valley @ Perrydale
Cove @ Butte Falls
Triangle Lake @ Crane
Triad @ Imbler
Echo @ St. Paul
Adrian @ Lowell

Just for jollies, here’s a bracket with the top 16 points teams without any regard for league matchups.

Adrian @ Dufur
Jordan Valley @ St. Paul
Gilchrist @ Perrydale
Triad @ Butte Falls
Cove @ Crane
Echo @ Joseph
Siletz Valley @ Imbler
Triangle Lake @ Lowell

I know this was a long post. Thanks for reading!

1A Final Points

1A, Final

First Place in League
Dufur 46.000
Lowell 45.556
Crane 44.444
Butte Falls 43.667
Perrydale 43.333
Imbler 42.250

Second Place in League
Joseph 42.556
St. Paul 42.100
Echo 41.900
Jordan Valley 41.800
Siletz Valley 41.625
Triad 41.375

Wild Cards: (Four)
Gilchrist 41.375
Cove 41.000
Triangle Lake 41.000
Adrian 40.750

Everyone Else

Camas Valley 40.500
Crow 40.444
South Wasco County 40.444
Mitchell/Spray 39.667
Ione 39.500
Falls City 39.111
Elkton 39.000
Days Creek 38.889
Mohawk 38.889
Harper 38.375
Wallowa 37.750
Sherman 37.600
Condon/Wheeler 37.556
Pine Eagle 37.556
Alsea 37.500
Arlington 37.500
Mapleton 37.500
Country Christian 37.000
Portland Lutheran 37.000
Prairie City 36.600
Jewell 36.250
McKenzie 36.222
North Lake 36.222
Powder Valley 36.222
Dayville/LC/Monument 36.000
Powers 35.444
OSD 35.375
Burnt River 34.500
Eddyville 34.250
Prospect 33.556
Huntington 33.000
Nixya’awii 33.000
Cascade Locks 29.667

Teams that would have qualified in my system that did not actually: Cove, Triangle Lake
Teams that would not have qualified in my system that did actually: S. Wasco County, Mohawk.

Proposed 3A Playoff

Proposed 3A Playoff

I’ll start by placing the 5 #1 seeds in the first 5 spots in the bracket. They will go in point order into pools ABCDD.

Pool A: Amity
Pool B: Grant Union
Pool C: Rainier
Pool D: Gold Beach, Regis

Now to put in the 5 league #2 seeds opposite the league champions. Since Pools A and D will be on the top half-bracket, and pools B and C on the bottom half-bracket, I’ll separate based on that. Each team will be placed in the first spot they can possibly be placed in pools CBAAB

Pool A: Amity, Umatilla, Vernonia
Pool B: GU, Cascade Christian, Willamina
Pool C: Rainier, Santiam Christian
Pool D: Gold Beach, Regis

Now the third place teams and Dayton go into the bracket. They should not be put in a pool with any other team from the same league. Once Colton is placed, we know where Dayton will go. We will check for spots in this order: CDDCBA.

Pool A: Amity, Umatilla, Vernonia, Jefferson
Pool B: GU, CC, Willamina, Warrenton
Pool C: Rainier, SC, Myrtle Point, Dayton
Pool D: GB, Regis, Colton, Vale

The bracket would be:

Jefferson @ Amity
Vernonia @ Umatilla
Colton @ Regis
Vale @ Gold Beach
Dayton @ Rainier
Myrtle Point @ Santiam Christian
Willamina @ Cascade Christian
Warrenton @ Grant Union

Just for jollies, here’s a bracket with the top 16 points teams without any regard for league matchups.

Bandon @ Amity
Umatilla @ Cascade Christian
Clatskanie @ Myrtle Point
Colton @ Gold Beach
Vale @ Rainier
Dayton @ Regis
Willamina @ Santiam Christian
Sheridan @ Grant Union

3A Final Points

3A, Final

First Place in League
Amity 45.556
Grant Union 45.111
Rainier 44.700 (opponent’s W-L: 50-43)
Gold Beach 44.700 (opponent’s W-L: 43-51)
Regis 42.800

Second Place in League
Santiam Christian 42.100
Cascade Christian 42.000
Umatilla 41.667
Willamina 41.000
Vernonia 38.111

Third Place in League
Myrtle Point 43.200
Colton 39.889
Vale 39.778
Jefferson 39.000
Warrenton 37.800

Wild Card (One)

Dayton 40.500

Everyone Else

Clatskanie 40.000
Bandon 39.667
Sheridan 39.625
Coquille 38.889
Reedsport 38.800
Horizon Christian 38.750
Nyssa 38.556
Toledo 38.556
Glide 38.333
Creswell 38.200
Harrisburg 37.100
Burns 37.000
Valley Catholic 36.222
Waldport 35.900
Neah-Kah-Nie 35.667
Gervais 34.111
Riverdale 33.714
Rogue River 33.556
Riverside 32.625
Chemawa 32.375

Teams that would have qualified in my system that did not actually: Dayton
Teams that would not have qualified in my system that did actually: Bandon

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Proposed 2A Playoff

Proposed 2A Playoff

I’ll start by placing the 5 #1 seeds in the first 5 spots in the bracket. They will go in point order into pools ABCDD.

Pool A: Culver
Pool B: Heppner
Pool C: Knappa
Pool D: Lakeview, Oakridge

Now to put in the 5 league 2nd-place teams opposite the league champions. Since Pools A and D will be on the top half-bracket, and pools B and C on the bottom half-bracket, I’ll separate based on that. Each team will be placed in the first spot they can possibly be placed in pools CBAAB.

Pool A: Culver, Pilot Rock, Portland Christian
Pool B: Heppner, Santiam, Central Linn
Pool C: Knappa, Bonanza
Pool D: Lakeview, Oakridge

Now the third place teams go into the bracket, into pools CDD if possible. They should not be put in a pool with any other team from the same league. Once Elgin is placed, we know where Weston-McEwen will go, and hopefully we can fill in the other two wild-card teams.

Pool A: 1. Culver; 2. Pilot Rock; 3. Portland Christian; 4. Lost River.
Pool B: 1. Heppner; 2. Santiam; 3. Central Linn; 4. Nestucca.
Pool C: 1. Knappa; 2. Bonanza; 3. Elgin; 4. Oakland.
Pool D: 1. Lakeview; 2. Oakridge; 3. Scio; 4. Weston-McEwen.

Success!

The bracket would be:
Lost River @ Culver
Portland Christian @ Pilot Rock
Scio @ Oakridge
Weston-McEwen @ Lakeview
Oakland @ Knappa
Elgin @ Bonanza
Central Linn @ Santiam
Nestucca @ Heppner

Just for jollies, here’s a bracket with the top 16 points teams without any regard for league matchups.

Oakland @ Culver
Nestucca @ Oakridge
Elgin @ Portland Christian
Weston-McEwen @ Knappa
Lost River @ Heppner
Central Linn @ Bonanza
Santiam @ Lakeview
Kennedy @ Pilot Rock

I know this was a long post. Thanks for reading!

2A Final Points

2A, Final

First Place in League
Culver 44.444
Heppner 43.300
Knappa 43.111
Lakeview 42.556
Oakridge 42.500

Second Place in League
Pilot Rock 43.333
Portland Christian 43.100
Bonanza 42.875
Santiam 42.000
Central Linn 41.300

Third Place in Mountain View, Tri-River, Blue Mountain
Elgin 40.111
Oakland 39.500
Scio 39.400

Wild Cards: (Three)

Nestucca 42.111
Weston-McEwen 39.889
Lost River 39.667

Everyone Else
Kennedy 39.600
Stanfield 39.333
North Douglas 39.250
Enterprise 38.111
Blanchet 37.700
Union 37.222
Corbett 37.125
Chiloquin 36.500
Salem Academy 36.111
Monroe 35.889
Gaston 35.250
Yoncalla 35.222
Irrigon 34.875
Riddle 34.778
St. Mary’s 33.500
Glendale 33.444

I got the 16 playoff teams exactly correct here.

Proposed 4A Playoff

4A Playoff according to current records 10/28

I’ll start by placing the 7 league leaders in the first 7 spots in the bracket. They will go in point order into pools ABCDDCB.

Pool A: Astoria
Pool B: North Valley, North Bend
Pool C: Marist, Baker
Pool D: Central, Estacada

Now to put in the 7 league 2nd-place teams opposite the league champions. Since Pools A and D will be on the top half-bracket, and pools B and C on the bottom half-bracket, I’ll separate based on that. Each team will be placed in the first spot they can possibly be placed in pools AABCDDC.

Pool A: Astoria, LaPine, Ontario
Pool B: NV, NB, Gladstone
Pool C: Marist, Baker, Banks, Newport
Pool D: Central, Estacada, Hidden Valley, Douglas

Now the third place teams and the wildcards go into the bracket. They should not be put in a pool with any other team from the same league. They will go in pools BAABCD, with the third place teams going in first.

Pool A: 1. Astoria; 2. LaPine; 3. Ontario; 4. LaSalle; 5. Siuslaw.
Pool B: 1. North Valley; 2. North Bend; 3. Gladstone; 4. Junction City; 5. Tillamook.
Pool C: 1. Marist; 2. Baker; 3. Banks; 4. Newport; 5. Henley.
Pool D: 1. Central; 2. Estacada; 3. Hidden Valley; 4. Douglas; 5. Elmira.

Success!

The bracket would be:
Siuslaw @ LaSalle, winner @ Astoria
Ontario @ LaPine
Hidden Valley @ Estacada
Elmira @ Douglas, winner @ Central
Henley @ Newport, winner @ Marist
Banks @ Baker
Gladstone @ North Bend
Tillamook @ Junction City, winner @ North Valley

Just for jollies, here’s a bracket with the top 20 points teams without any regard for league matchups.

Tillamook @ Hidden Valley, winner @ Astoria
Elmira @ Baker
LaSalle @ Gladstone
Cottage Grove @ Newport, winner @ Central
Philomath @ North Bend, winner @ Marist
Junction City @ Banks
LaPine @ Estacada
Henley @ Ontario, winner @ North Valley.

I know this was a long post. Thanks for reading!

4A Final Points

4A, Final

First Place in League

Astoria 44.500
North Valley 44.444
Marist 44.000
Central 43.700
Estacada 42.600
Baker 42.333
North Bend 41.000

Second Place in League

Gladstone 43.111
Banks 42.800
LaPine 41.800
Newport 41.000
Ontario 40.889
Hidden Valley 40.778
Douglas 38.000

Third Place in League (Excluding Valco, Skyline, GOL)
Junction City 41.200
LaSalle 41.000
Tillamook 40.600
Siuslaw 39.111

Wild Cards (Two)
Elmira 41.900
Henley 39.800

Everyone Else

Philomath 39.700
Cottage Grove 39.667
Stayton 39.200
North Marion 38.700
McLoughlin 38.333
Scappoose 38.100
South Umpqua 38.000
Sisters 37.500
Phoenix 37.222
Pleasant Hill 37.100
Sutherlin 36.900
LaGrande 36.778
Cascade 36.400
Sweet Home 36.400
Yamhill-Carlton 36.400
Taft 35.200
Brookings 34.778
Illinois Valley 34.700
Molalla 34.111
Seaside 34.000

Teams that would have qualified in my system that did not actually: Elmira
Teams that would not have qualified in my system that did actually: Philomath

Proposed 5A Playoff

Proposed 5A Playoff

Before I get rolling on this, if you have ANY reasonable suggestions at all, feel free to leave a comment either on the blog or on oregonlive.com forums.

How the points were determined is outlined here: http://ohsfb.blogspot.com/2008/09/how-my-ratings-work.html

I start by placing the 6 league #1 seeds in the first 6 spots in the bracket. They will go in pools ABCDDC in point order.

Pool A: Thurston
Pool B: West Albany
Pool C: Sherwood, Madison
Pool D: Mountain View, Crater

Now I’ll put in the 6 league #2 seeds opposite the league champions. Since Pools A and D will be on the top half-bracket, and pools B and C on the bottom half-bracket, I’ll separate based on that. Each team will be placed in the first spot they can possibly be placed in pools BAABCD.

Pool A: Thurston, Century, Corvallis
Pool B: WA, Marshfield, Hermiston
Pool C: Sherwood, Madison, Klamath Union
Pool D: MV, Crater, Jefferson

Now the 4 third place teams go into the bracket. They should not be put in a pool with any other team from the same league. They will go in the first spot they can be possibly placed in pools DCBA. Churchill and South Albany had to be switched so the wild cards could be placed correctly.

Pool A: Thurston, Century, Corvallis, Bend
Pool B: WA, Marshfield, Hermiston, Hillsboro
Pool C: Sherwood, Madison, KU, Churchill
Pool D: MV, Crater, Jefferson, South Albany

Now the wild card teams get put in last. Checking the conferences, we find there are two Midwestern, one NWOC and one Southern Sky. Ideally, we’ll put the top-rated one from each league in a pool away from the other teams from the same league. We’ll start by placing those, then putting Willamette in the last available spot.

Pool A: 1. Thurston; 2. Century; 3. Corvallis; 4. Bend; 5. Ashland.
Pool B: 1. W. Albany; 2. Marshfield; 3. Hermiston; 4. Hillsboro; 5. Willamette.
Pool C: 1. Sherwood; 2. Madison; 3. Klamath Union; 4. South Albany; 5. Springfield.
Pool D: 1. Mountain View; 2. Crater; 3. Jefferson; 4. Churchill; 5. Glencoe.

That would result in this bracket for the playoffs:

Ashland @ Bend, winner @ Thurston
Corvallis @ Century
Jefferson @ Crater
Glencoe @ Churchill, winner @ Mountain View
Springfield @ S. Albany, winner @ Sherwood
Klamath Union @ Madison
Hermiston @ Marshfield
Willamette @ Hillsboro, winner @ W. Albany

No coins were harmed in the construction of this bracket.

Just for jollies, here’s a bracket with the top 20 points teams without any regard for league matchups.

Klamath Union @ S. Albany, winner @ Thurston
Glencoe @ Hillsboro
Hermiston @ Mountain View
Silverton @ Corvallis, winner @ Sherwood
Pendleton @ Churchill, winner @ Century
Crater @ Marshfield
Willamette @ Springfield
Bend @ Ashland, winner @ W. Albany

I know this was a long post. Thanks for reading!

5A Final Points

5A, Final

First Place in League
Thurston 44.889
West Albany 44.500
Sherwood 43.800
Mountain View 42.000
Crater 41.000
Madison 38.100

Second Place in League
Century 44.000
Marshfield 41.700
Hermiston 41.000
Corvallis 40.700
Klamath Union 40.200
Jefferson 38.900

Third Place in League (Excluding PIL, S.Sky)
Hillsboro 41.300
Churchill 40.600
South Albany 40.400
Bend 39.700

Wild Cards (Four)

Springfield 41.700
Glencoe 41.100
Willamette 41.100
Ashland 40.400

Everyone Else

Pendleton 39.444
Silverton 39.200
Wilsonville 38.889
Eagle Point 38.100
Crescent Valley 38.000
Summit 37.800
Cleveland 37.333
Mazama 37.300
Crook County 36.600
Dallas 36.400
St. Helens 36.100
Liberty 35.600
Marshall 35.556
Lebanon 35.400
The Dalles-Wahtonka 34.900
North Eugene 34.700
Woodburn 34.400
Madras 32.000
Parkrose 31.889
Roosevelt 30.889

Teams that would have qualified in my system that did not actually: Springfield, Willamette, Ashland.

Teams that would not have qualified in my system that did actually: Cleveland, Pendleton, Silverton.

Proposed 6A Playoff

Proposed 6A Playoff

Before I get rolling on this, if you have ANY reasonable suggestions at all, feel free to leave a comment either on the blog or on oregonlive.com forums.

How the points were determined is outlined here: http://ohsfb.blogspot.com/2008/09/how-my-ratings-work.html

I start by placing the 7 league #1 seeds in the first 7 spots in the bracket. They will go in pools ABCDDCB in point order.

Pool A: Jesuit
Pool B: Lake Oswego, Tualatin
Pool C: South Medford, Lincoln
Pool D: South Salem, Central Catholic

Now I’ll put in the 7 league #2 seeds opposite the league champions. Since Pools A and D will be on the top half-bracket, and pools B and C on the bottom half-bracket, I’ll separate based on that. Each team will be placed in the first spot they can possibly be placed in pools AABCDDC

Pool A: Jesuit, Grants Pass, Tigard
Pool B: LO, Tualatin, Beaverton
Pool C: SM, Lincoln, McNary, David Douglas
Pool D: SS, CC, Grant, West Linn

Now the 6 third place teams go into the bracket. They should not be put in a pool with any other team from the same league. They will go in the first spot they can be possibly placed in pools BAABCD. It is possible that we may have to move some teams around a little bit depending on what happens with the wild cards.

Pool A: Jesuit, GP, Tigard, Sprague, Barlow
Pool B: LO, Tualatin, Beaverton, Sheldon, Oregon City
Pool C: SM, Lincoln, McNary, DD, Southridge
Pool D: SS, CC, Grant, WL, Canby

Now the wild card teams get put in last. Checking the conferences, we find there are one Metro, two Mt. Hood, one Pacific, one 3 Rivers and two CVC and one PIL. Ideally, we’ll put the top rated one from each league in a pool away from the other teams from the same league. We’ll start by placing those.

Pool A: Jesuit, GP, Tigard, Sprague, Barlow, Clackamas, Wilson
Pool B: LO, Tualatin, Beaverton, Sheldon, OC, W. Salem, Gresham
Pool C: SM, Lincoln, McNary, DD, Southridge, Newberg
Pool D: SS, CC, Grant, WL, Canby, Westview

So that leaves Centennial and McKay. They’ll have to go into a pool with another team from the same league. Again, ideally, they will not run into that team until the quarterfinals. The way the bracket will work for each pool is 1st-bye; 4th-5th; 3rd-6th; 2nd-7th. So, by putting McKay in pool D and Centennial in pool C, they will not meet another league team until the quarterfinals.

Pool A: 1. Jesuit; 2. Grants Pass; 3. Tigard; 4. Sprague' 5. Barlow; 6. Clackamas; 7. Wilson.

Pool B: 1. Lake Oswego; 2. Tualatin; 3. Beaverton; 4. Sheldon; 5. Oregon City; 6. West Salem; 7. Gresham.

Pool C: 1. South Medford; 2. Lincoln; 3. McNary; 4. David Douglas; 5. Southridge; 6. Newberg; 7. Centennial.

Pool D: 1. South Salem; 2. Central Catholic; 3. Grant; 4. West Linn; 5. Canby; 6. Westview; 7. McKay.

That would result in this bracket for the playoffs:

Jesuit bye
Barlow @ Sprague
Clackamas @ Tigard
Wilson @ Grants Pass
South Salem bye
Canby @ West Linn
Westview @ Grant
McKay @ Central Catholic
South Medford bye
Southridge @ David Douglas
Newberg @ McNary
Centennial @ Lincoln
Lake Oswego bye
Oregon City @ Sheldon
West Salem @ Beaverton
Gresham @ Tualatin

Just for jollies, here’s a bracket with the top 28 points teams without any regard for league matchups.

Jesuit bye
Grant @ Sheldon
McKay @ Grants Pass
Clackamas @ Canby
Centennial @ South Salem
W. Linn @ Tualatin
Barlow @ Tigard
Southridge bye
S. Medford bye
Sprague @ McNary
Gresham @ Lincoln
Oregon City @ Central Catholic
Wilson @ Beaverton
Newberg @ Westview
W. Salem @ David Douglas
Lake Oswego bye

I know this was a long post! Thanks for reading!

6A Final Points

6A, Final

First Place in League

Jesuit 45.333
Lake Oswego 43.889
South Medford 43.800
South Salem 43.333
Central Catholic 43.300
Lincoln 41.600
Tualatin 41.333

Second Place in League

Beaverton 42.333
Grants Pass 42.000
Tigard 41.222
McNary 41.100
David Douglas 40.900
Grant 40.000
West Linn 39.700

Third Place in League (excluding PIL)

Southridge 43.444
Canby 42.100
Sheldon 40.778
Sprague 39.800
Barlow 39.700
Oregon City 38.300

Wild Cards (eight)

Westview 41.889
West Salem 40.000
Gresham 38.900
Newberg 38.889
McKay 38.800
Clackamas 38.375
Wilson 38.333
Centennial 38.100

Everyone Else

Sunset 37.778
Redmond 37.600
Roseburg 37.600
McMinnville 37.556
Franklin 37.444
North Medford 37.222
Hood River Valley 36.600
Aloha 36.222
Forest Grove 36.100
South Eugene 34.667
Lakeridge 34.333
Reynolds 34.200
Sandy 33.900
Milwaukie 33.778
North Salem 33.500
Benson 33.444
Putnam 33.444

* = does not include 2 non-league games that were changed to forfeit losses.

Teams that would have qualified in my system that did not actually: W. Salem.
Teams that would not have qualified in my system that did actually: Roseburg.