Tuesday, September 30, 2008

A link to my spreadsheet.

Here's the current spreadsheet as of 9/30/08. If you see typos, let me know.

Spreadsheet

1A 9/30 Ratings and Comments

Team, Last Week, Points

1. Lowell (1) 46.250
2. Dufur (2) 46.000
3. Siletz Valley (3) 45.000
4. OSD (3) 44.333
5. Joseph (3) 44.000
6. Country Christian (16) 43.250
7. Crane (3) 43.000
8. Gilchrist (7) 42.750
9. Triad (9) 42.500
10. South Wasco County (7) 42.000
11. Butte Falls (10) 41.600
12. Jordan Valley (15) 41.000
13. Triangle Lake (16) 40.750
14. St. Paul (10) 40.600
15. Falls City (27) 40.250
16. Cove (10) 40.200
17T. Adrian (19) 40.000
17T. Perrydale (13) 40.000
19T. Crow (31) 39.500
19T. Imbler (20) 39.500
21. Camas Valley (20) 39.333
22T. Echo (14) 39.200
22T. Ione (23) 39.200
24. Pine Eagle (20) 39.000
25T. Arlington (18)* 38.667
25T. Elkton (32) 38.667
25T. Mapleton (23) 38.667
28T. Days Creek (27) 38.500
28T. Dayville/LC/Monument (32) 38.500
30. Mitchell/Spray (37) 38.200
31T. Alsea (32) 38.000
31T. Harper (32) 38.000
33. North Lake (27) 37.750
34T. Burnt River (27) 37.250
34T. Sherman (38) 37.250
36T. Jewell (23) 37.000
36T. Nixya’awii (32) 37.000
36T. Wallowa (44) 37.000
39. Powder Valley (23) 36.500
40. Prairie City (38) 36.400
41T. Condon/Wheeler (40) 36.000
41T. Mohawk (40) 36.000
43T. Portland Lutheran (45) 35.500
43T. Prospect (42) 35.500
45. Powers (42) 34.250
46. McKenzie (46) 33.500
47. Cascade Locks (46) 33.000
48. Eddyville (46) 31.333
49. Huntington (49) 29.250

I'm not even going to begin speculating on playoffs for this division until teams have played a couple more games.

No idea what is happening with Arlington...is their season over, or are they going to play the games on their schedule even though they are forfeits?

2A 9/30 Ratings and Comments

Team, Last Week, Points

1. Bonanza (1) 46.667
2. Portland Christian (12) 43.600
3T. Pilot Rock (2) 43.000
3T. Knappa (8) 43.000
5T. Central Linn (4) 42.600
5T. Heppner (8) 42.600
7. Culver (18) 42.500
8. Nestucca (23) 42.200
9T. Lakeview (5) 42.000
9T. Oakridge (14) 42.000
11. Blanchet (10) 41.400
12. Santiam (2) 41.250
13. Lost River (17) 41.200
14. Scio (26) 39.600
15T. Enterprise (5) 39.500
15T. Union (18) 39.500
17. Kennedy (16) 39.400
18. North Douglas (12) 39.333
19. Stanfield (15) 38.750
20. Oakland (7) 38.333
21T. Glendale (21) 37.750
21T. Weston-McEwen (21) 37.750
23. Monroe (25) 37.250
24T. Elgin (32) 37.000
24T. Salem Academy (11) 37.000
26. Yoncalla (23) 36.750
27. Gaston (18) 36.250
28. Riddle (28) 36.000
29. Chiloquin (31) 35.800
30. St. Mary’s (28) 35.250
31. Irrigon (27) 34.667
32. Corbett (30) 34.250

This one is a 16-team playoff with 5 leagues, so I'll do the same thing I did with the 3A division.

If there were one wildcard team, the automatic qualifiers would be Portland Christian, Knappa, Nestucca, Central Linn, Oakridge, North Douglas, Culver, Blanchet, Santiam, Bonanza, Lakeview, Lost River, Pilot Rock, Heppner, and either Enterprise or Union. The wildcard would be Scio.

With 6 wildcards, the first two from each league are in, and the wildcards would be Nestucca, Santiam, Lost River, Scio, Enterprise and Union. So only one change at this point.

Lots of football still to go.

3A 9/30 Ratings and Comments

Team, Last Week, Points

1. Rainier (2) 47.400
2. Grant Union (1) 46.500
3. Amity (3) 45.000
4. Gold Beach (4) 44.400
5. Sheridan (10) 43.250
6. Myrtle Point (6) 43.200
7. Umatilla (5) 43.000
8. Regis (7) 41.600
9. Reedsport (14) 41.200
10. Clatskanie (18) 40.800
11T. Colton (9) 40.750
11T. Glide (10) 40.750
13. Santiam Christian (7) 40.600
14. Vale (15) 40.500
15. Nyssa (10) 39.500
16T. Bandon (10) 39.000
16T. Burns (21) 39.000
16T. Toledo (16) 39.000
19. Dayton (17) 38.800
20. Cascade Christian (23) 38.750
21. Neah-Kah-Nie (31) 38.500
22. Jefferson (27) 38.400
23. Creswell (19) 38.200
24T. Harrisburg (23), 38.000
24T. Riverdale (24) 38.000
24T. Vernonia (24) 38.000
27. Willamina (36) 37.750
28. Warrenton (27) 37.400
29. Coquille (34) 37.250
30. Horizon Christian (32) 37.000
31. Waldport (27) 35.800
32. Gervais (24), 35.500
33. Valley Catholic (22) 35.400
34. Chemawa (32) 34.667
35. Rogue River (35) 34.250
36. Riverside (30) 32.000

This is a 16-team playoff, and there are 5 leagues. I'll look at 2 different scenarios here: Top 3 per league with one wildcard, and top 2 per league with 6 wildcards.

If there was one wildcard, the current automatics would be: Rainier, Clatskanie, Neah-Kah-Nie, Amity, Sheridan, Colton, Regis, Santiam Christian, Toledo, Gold Beach, Myrtle Point, Reedsport, Grant Union, Umatilla and Vale. The wildcard would be Glide.

If there were six wildcards, the automatics would be the first 2 from each league. The wildcards would be Reedsport, Colton, Glide, Vale, Nyssa and either Bandon, Burns or Toledo.

Basically a difference of one team. Nyssa instead of NKN.

This will be interesting to see how it shakes out the next couple of weeks.

4A 9/30 Ratings and Comments

Team, Last Week, Points

1. Gladstone (1) 45.000
2. LaSalle (4) 44.500
3T. Astoria (1) 44.000
3T. Central (6) 44.000
3T. North Valley (5) 44.000
6T. Banks (6) 43.000
6T. Marist (16) 43.000
8. Philomath (6) 42.600
9. McLoughlin (10) 42.200
10. Tillamook (9) 42.000
11. Baker (3) 41.600
12. North Bend (12) 41.400
13T. Junction City (19) 41.200
13T. Newport (14) 41.200
15. Ontario (16) 41.000
16. Hidden Valley (22) 40.750
17T. Cottage Grove (10) 40.200
17T. Elmira (18) 40.200
19T. LaPine (20) 40.000
19T. Sisters (12) 40.000
21. Scappoose (14) 39.800
22. Stayton (21) 39.600
23. Henley (29) 39.400
24T. Estacada (23) 39.200
24T. Pleasant Hill (23) 39.200
26. Sutherlin (26) 38.400
27T. North Marion (27) 38.200
27T. South Umpqua (28) 38.200
29T. Brookings (33) 37.750
29T. Siuslaw (33) 37.750
31. Phoenix (25) 37.600
32. Sweet Home (30) 37.400
33. Taft (30) 36.400
34. LaGrande (35) 35.500
35. Douglas (30) 35.400
36T. Cascade (36) 35.000
36T. Molalla (36) 35.000
38T. Illinois Valley (39) 34.000
38T. Seaside (36) 34.000
38T. Yamhill-Carlton (39) 34.000

20-team playoff, 7 leagues would get 2 teams in each with 6 wildcards. At this point the byes would go to Gladstone, Astoria, Central and North Valley. The other playoff teams would be Banks, LaSalle, North Bend, Sutherlin, Philomath, Marist, Junction City, Hidden Valley, McLoughlin and Baker. The 6 wildcards would be Tillamook, Newport, Ontario, Cottage Grove, Elmira and either LaPine or Sisters.

Gonna be interesting to see how this shakes down in the next couple of weeks.

5A 9/30 Ratings and Comments

Team, Last Week, Points

1. West Albany (2) 46.000
2. Willamette (1) 45.800
3. Thurston (6) 44.750
4T. Century (3), 43.000
4T. Mountain View (4) 43.000
6. Hillsboro (13) 42.800
7. Sherwood (15) 42.600
8T. Ashland (19) 42.200
8T. Silverton (8), 42.200
10. Churchill (10) 42.000
11. Mazama (7) 41.200
12T. Crater (15) 41.000
12T. Pendleton (14) 41.000
14. Klamath Union (22) 40.800
15T. Glencoe (10) 40.600
15T. South Albany (15) 40.600
15T. Springfield (5), 40.600
18. Marshfield (8) 40.200
19. Cleveland (10) 40.000
20. Wilsonville (30) 39.500
21. Jefferson (26) 39.200
22. Hermiston (21) 39.000
23. Eagle Point (33) 38.800
24. Crescent Valley (15) 38.600
25T. Bend (26) 37.800
25T. Corvallis (22) 37.800
25T. Liberty (26) 37.800
28. Woodburn (22) 37.400
29. Marshall (34) 37.250
30. Dallas (35) 37.000
31T. Crook County (19) 36.800
31T. St. Helens (26) 36.800
31T. Summit (22) 36.800
34. Lebanon (31), 36.400
35. Madison (37) 36.200
36T. Madras (35) 36.000
36T. North Eugene (32) 36.000
38. The Dalles-Wahtonka (35) 35.800
39. Parkrose (39) 34.600
40. Roosevelt (40), 29.750

In a 20-team bracket, there are 4 byes for District champs. At this point in the season by the ratings, they would go to West Albany, Willamette, Century and Mountain View. Assuming each league gets three teams in, and 2 wildcards, the playoff teams would be: Cleveland, Jefferson, Marshall, Sherwood, Hillsboro, Silverton, S. Albany, Thurston, Churchill, Ashland, Mazama, Crater, Pendleton and Hermiston. The wildcards would be Klamath Union and either Glencoe or Springfield.

Still lots of football to be played, lots of changes will occur.

The District 2 teams are moving up the rankings this week. Hillsboro and Sherwood both made big moves. Springfield and Marshfield moved down after losses to lower-rank teams.

Monday, September 29, 2008

6A 9/30 Ratings and Comments

Team, Last Week, Points

1. Southridge (2) 45.000
2T. Grants Pass (15) 43.750
2T. Lake Oswego (1) 43.750
4. Canby (9) 43.600
5. South Salem (7) 43.000
6T. McMinnville (5), 42.750
6T. Sheldon (13) 42.750
8. South Medford (9) 42.600
9. West Salem (5) 42.200
10T. North Medford (16) 42.000
10T. Westview (9) 42.000
12T. Central Catholic (17) 41.600
12T. Gresham (7) 41.600
14. Newberg (13) 41.500
15. Jesuit (3) 40.750
16. McNary (9) 40.600
17T. David Douglas (19) 40.200
17T. Forest Grove (3) 40.200
17T. Lincoln (17) 40.200
20T. Hood River Valley (32) 38.800
20T. Oregon City (24) 38.800
20T. Redmond (32) 38.800
23. Franklin (26) 38.600
24. Tualatin (21) 38.500
25T. Grant (32) 38.400
25T. Roseburg (37) 38.400
25T. Sprague (24) 38.400
28T. Beaverton (35) 38.250
28T. Sunset (26) 38.250
28T. Tigard (26) 38.250
31. Barlow (28) 38.200
32. South Eugene (29) 38.000
33. Sandy (19) 37.800
34. Aloha (31) 37.750
35T. Clackamas (23) 37.250
35T. Wilson (40) 37.250
37. West Linn (22) 36.800
38. Putnam (35) 36.500
39T. Centennial (29) 36.000
39T. McKay (41) 36.000
41T. Lakeridge (45) 35.500
41T. Milwaukie (39) 35.500
43T. North Salem (41) 35.000
43T. Reynolds (41) 35.000
45. Benson (44) 34.000

Comments: There are 28 playoff spots in the 6A division. If the current rankings were final, the byes would go to Southridge, Lake Oswego, Grants Pass and Canby. The other automatic qualifiers: Lincoln, Grant, Franklin, Jesuit, Westview, Oregon City, Clackamas, Gresham, Central Catholic, David Douglas, McMinnville, Newberg, S. Medford, Sheldon, McNary, S. Salem and W. Salem. The wildcards would be: N. Medford, Forest Grove, Hood River, Redmond, Tualatin, Roseburg and Sprague.

Still a lot of football to be played.

Big movers up: Grants Pass, which had 2 opponents move up a rank; Sheldon, ditto; Redmond and Hood River both beat rank 2 teams and had previous opponents move up.

Big movers down: Jesuit, had two opponents go from rank 1 to rank 2. Forest Grove lost to a rank 3 team. Sandy had opponents go down in rank AND lost to a rank 2 team.

1A, 9/23

1. Lowell (3-0), 48.333
2. Dufur (4-0), 46.250
3T. Crane (4-0), 45.000
3T. Joseph (4-0), 45.000
3T. OSD (2-0), 45.000
3T. Siletz Valley (2-0), 45.000
7T. Gilchrist (2-1), 44.333
7T. South Wasco County (2-1), 44.333
9. Triad (3-0), 43.333
10T. Butte Falls (3-1), 42.000
10T. Cove (3-1), 42.000
10T. St. Paul (3-1), 42.000
13. Perrydale (3-0), 41.667
14. Echo (2-2), 41.500
15. Jordan Valley (4-0), 41.250
16T. Country Christian (2-1), 41.000
16T. Triangle Lake (2-1), 41.000
18. Arlington (1-2)*, 40.333
19. Adrian (2-0), 40.000
20T. Camas Valley (2-1), 39.333
20T. Imbler (2-1), 39.333
20T. Pine Eagle (2-1), 39.333
23T. Ione (2-2), 39.000
23T. Jewell (1-1), 39.000
23T. Mapleton (1-1), 39.000
23T. Powder Valley (2-2), 39.000
27T. Burnt River (1-2), 38.667
27T. Days Creek (1-2), 38.667
27T. Falls City (1-2), 38.667
27T. North Lake (1-2), 38.667
31. Crow (1-1), 38.333
32T. Alsea (0-2), 38.000
32T. Dayville/Monument (0-3), 38.000
32T. Elkton (0-2), 38.000
32T. Harper (0-2), 38.000
32T. Nixya'awii (0-4), 38.000
37. Mitchell/Spray (2-2), 37.750
38T. Prairie City (1-3), 37.250
38T. Sherman (1-3), 37.250
40T. Condon/Wheeler (1-2), 37.000
40T. Mohawk (1-2), 37.000
42T. Powers (0-3), 36.333
42T. Prospect (0-3), 36.333
44. Wallowa (0-3), 36.000
45. Portland Lutheran (0-3), 34.667
46T. Cascade Locks (0-3), 33.000
46T. Eddyville (0-2), 33.000
46T. McKenzie (0-3), 33.000
49. Huntington (0-3), 31.333

2A, 9/23

1. Bonanza (3-0), 46.667
2T. Pilot Rock (3-0), 44.000
2T. Santiam (3-0), 44.000
4. Central Linn (3-1), 43.750
5T. Enterprise (2-1), 42.667
5T. Lakeview (1-2), 42.667
7. Oakland (1-1), 42.500
8T. Heppner (2-2), 42.000
8T. Knappa (4-0), 42.000
10. Blanchet (2-2), 41.750
11. Salem Academy (2-1), 41.667
12T. North Douglas (1-1), 41.500
12T. Portland Christian (3-1), 41.500
14. Oakridge (3-1), 41.250
15. Stanfield (2-1), 40.667
16. Kennedy (2-2), 40.500
17. Lost River (1-3), 40.250
18T. Culver (3-1), 40.000
18T. Gaston (2-1), 40.000
18T. Union (1-2), 40.000
21T. Glendale (1-2), 39.333
21T. Weston-McEwen (2-1), 39.333
23T. Nestucca (3-1), 39.000
23T. Yoncalla (1-2), 39.000
25. Monroe (1-2), 38.667
26. Scio (2-2), 38.250
27. Irrigon (0-2), 38.000
28T. Riddle (0-3), 37.667
28T. St. Mary's (1-2), 37.667
30. Corbett (0-3), 36.667
31. Chiloquin (2-2), 36.500
32. Elgin (1-2), 36.000

3A, 9/23

1. Grant Union (3-0), 47.000
2. Rainier (3-1), 46.750
3. Amity (3-0), 46.667
4. Gold Beach (3-1), 45.500
5. Umatilla (3-0), 45.000
6. Myrtle Point (4-0), 44.000
7T. Regis (3-1), 42.000
7T. Santiam Christian (3-1), 42.000
9. Colton (3-0), 41.667
10T. Bandon (2-1), 41.000
10T. Glide (2-1), 41.000
10T. Nyssa (1-2), 41.000
10T. Sheridan (2-1), 41.000
14. Reedsport (3-1), 40.750
15. Vale (2-2), 40.500
16. Toledo (1-2), 40.333
17. Dayton (1-2), 40.250
18. Clatskanie (1-3), 39.750
19. Creswell (2-2), 39.500
20. Harrisburg (0-4), 39.250
21. Burns (0-4), 38.750
22. Valley Catholic (1-3), 38.500
23. Cascade Christian (1-2), 38.333
24T. Gervais (0-3), 38.000
24T. Riverdale (0-2), 38.000
24T. Vernonia (0-3), 38.000
27T. Jefferson (1-3), 37.250
27T. Waldport (1-3), 37.250
27T. Warrenton (1-3), 37.250
30. Riverside (0-3), 37.000
31. Neah-Kah-Nie (0-3), 36.333
32T. Chemawa (0-2), 35.500
32T. Horizon Christian (0-2), 35.500
34. Coquille (1-2), 35.333
35. Rogue River (0-3), 34.667
36. Willamina (1-2), 33.667

4A, 9/23

1T. Astoria (4-0), 45.000
1T. Gladstone (4-0), 45.000
3. Baker (3-1), 44.500
4. LaSalle (2-1), 44.333
5. North Valley (4-0), 44.250
6T. Banks (3-1), 43.750
6T. Central (4-0), 43.750
6T. Philomath (4-0), 43.750
9. Tillamook (3-1), 42.250
10T. Cottage Grove (2-2), 42.000
10T. McLoughlin (3-1), 42.000
12T. North Bend (3-1), 41.750
12T. Sisters (4-0), 41.750
14T. Newport (2-2), 41.500
14T. Scappoose (2-2), 41.500
16T. Marist (2-2), 41.250
16T. Ontario (3-1), 41.250
18. Elmira (3-1), 40.750
19. Junction City (2-2), 40.250
20. LaPine (3-1), 39.750
21. Stayton (3-1), 39.500
22. Hidden Valley (2-1), 39.333
23T. Estacada (2-2), 39.000
23T. Pleasant Hill (2-2), 39.000
25. Phoenix (2-2), 38.750
26. Sutherlin (1-3), 38.500
27. North Marion (3-1), 38.250
28. South Umpqua (1-3), 37.750
29. Henley (1-3), 37.500
30T. Douglas (1-3), 37.250
30T. Sweet Home (1-3), 37.250
30T. Taft (1-3), 37.250
33T. Brookings (0-3), 37.000
33T. Siuslaw (1-2), 37.000
35. LaGrande (0-4), 36.750
36T. Cascade (0-4), 35.500
36T. Molalla (0-4), 35.500
36T. Seaside (0-4), 35.500
39T. Illinois Valley (0-4), 34.250
39T. Yamhill-Carlton (0-4), 34.250

5A, 9/23

1. Willamette (4-0), 45.500
2. West Albany (4-0), 45.000
3. Century (4-0), 44.250
4. Mountain View (3-0), 44.000
5. Springfield (4-0), 43.750
6. Thurston (4-0), 43.500
7. Mazama (3-1), 43.250
8T. Marshfield (2-2), 42.000
8T. Silverton (3-1), 42.000
10T. Churchill (3-1), 41.250
10T. Cleveland (1-3), 41.250
10T. Glencoe (3-1), 41.250
13. Hillsboro (3-1), 41.000
14. Pendleton (1-2), 39.667
15T. Crater (2-2), 39.500
15T. Crescent Valley (3-1), 39.500
15T. South Albany (3-1), 39.500
15T. Sherwood (3-1), 39.500
19T. Ashland (2-2), 39.000
19T. Crook County (2-2), 39.000
21. Hermiston (1-2), 38.667
22T. Corvallis (1-3), 38.500
22T. Klamath Union (1-3), 38.500
22T. Summit (1-3), 38.500
22T. Woodburn (1-3). 38.500
26T. Bend (1-3), 37.750
26T. Jefferson (1-3), 37.750
26T. Liberty (1-3), 37.750
26T. St. Helens (1-3), 37.750
30. Wilsonville (2-1), 37.667
31. Lebanon (1-3), 37.250
32. North Eugene (0-4), 36.750
33. Eagle Point (2-2), 36.500
34. Marshall (0-4), 36.000
35T. Dallas (0-4), 35.500
35T. Madras (0-4), 35.500
37. Madison (1-3), 35.250
38. The Dalles-Wahtonka (1-3), 34.000
39. Parkrose (1-3), 33.250
40. Roosevelt (0-4), 29.750

6A, 9/23

1. Lake Oswego (3-0), 46.667
2. Southridge (4-0), 45.000
3T. Jesuit (3-1), 43.250
3T. Forest Grove (3-1), 43.250
5T. McMinnville (2-2), 42.750
5T. West Salem (2-2), 42.750
7T. Gresham (4-0), 42.500
7T. South Salem (4-0), 42.500
9T. Canby (3-1), 42.000
9T. McNary (3-1), 42.000
9T. South Medford (3-1), 42.000
9T. Westview (3-1), 42.000
13T. Newberg (2-2), 41.500
13T Sheldon (2-2), 41.500
15. Grants Pass (4-0), 41.250
16. North Medford (2-1), 41.000
17T. Central Catholic (3-1), 40.750
17T. Lincoln (3-1), 40.750
19T David Douglas (2-2), 40.250
19T. Sandy (2-2), 40.250
21. Tualatin (1-3), 39.750
22. West Linn (2-2), 39.000
23. Clackamas (1-2), 38.667
24T. Oregon City (1-3), 38.500
24T. Sprague (1-3), 38.500
26T. Franklin (3-1), 38.250
26T. Sunset (3-1), 38.250
26T. Tigard (3-1), 38.250
29T. Centennial (0-4), 38.000
29T. South Eugene (0-3), 38.000
31. Aloha (2-2), 37.750
32T. Grant (1-3), 37.250
32T. Hood River Valley (1-3), 37.250
32T. Redmond (1-3), 37.250
35T. Beaverton (3-1), 37.000
35T. Putnam (1-2), 37.000
37. Roseburg (0-4), 36.750
38. Barlow (2-2), 36.500
39. Milwaukie (0-3), 36.333
40. Wilson (1-3), 36.000
41T. McKay (0-4), 35.500
41T. North Salem (0-4), 35.500
41T. Reynolds (0-4), 35.500
44. Benson (2-2), 34.000
45. Lakeridge (0-3), 33.000

How My Ratings Work.

Ratings for Oregon football, 2008.


The ratings are done in the following manner: Each team is assigned to a rank determined by their current won-loss record. A team that has won 2/3 or more of their games is classified rank 1, a team that has won less than 1/3 of their games is rank 3, and the teams in between are rank 2. At this point in the season, 2-1 or better is rank 1, and anyone 1-3 or worse is rank 3.


A win over a rank 1 team is worth 50 points, a win over a rank 2 team is worth 45 points, and a win over a rank 3 team is worth 40 points. A loss to a rank 1 team is worth 38 points, a loss to a rank 2 team is worth 33 points, and a loss to a rank 3 team is worth 28 points.


Any team that plays a team in a classification one level above them gets 2 bonus points. Playing 2 levels or more up is worth 5 bonus points. There is no penalty for playing a team in a classification lower than yours. Point spread means absolutely nothing in this system. Win by 93, win by 1, it's the same.


This system is intended to do two things: Seed a potential playoff structure and determine wild-card teams for said playoffs. As playoff time approaches, I will offer up alternative scenarios to what the OSAA has provided, more as a topic for discussion than any kind of suggestion that this is what the OSAA ACTUALLY should do.


This system is similar to one used in Nebraska for all its sports.